Possible scenario
Court challenges constrain rollback
35% Chance
Civil-rights groups, Democratic-led states, and school districts challenge the rescission under the Administrative Procedure Act and equal-protection theories. Given the 2024 injunction history and the Supreme Court’s prior decision to keep the Biden rule on hold, the most likely legal outcome is a limited, procedurally focused fight rather than a clean nationwide resolution.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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