Possible scenario
Regional Spillover
15% Chance
The conflict begins to involve Red Sea shipping, Gulf energy infrastructure, or Iran-linked networks outside Yemen. This is less likely than a contained clash, but the first Houthi strike on Riyadh raises the chance that Saudi Arabia and its partners respond beyond Yemen.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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