Possible scenario
Contained Saudi-Houthi Clash
45% Chance
Saudi Arabia retaliates in a limited way while keeping channels through Oman, the United Nations, and possibly Iran open. The Houthis claim symbolic success from the Riyadh strike but avoid a sustained campaign against Saudi cities, making containment the most likely near-term path.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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