Possible scenario
Escalating Missile Exchange
30% Chance
The fighting broadens into a sustained Saudi-Houthi exchange involving Saudi airpower and repeated Houthi missile or drone launches. This would be a material geopolitical escalation, but still below a full regional war unless energy facilities or maritime chokepoints are hit.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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