Possible scenario
Democratic Upset Path
12% Chance
A favorable national environment for Democrats, unusually strong Black turnout, and weak Republican enthusiasm create a narrow path for Colom. This remains unlikely, but Obama and Buttigieg's involvement signals Democrats may test whether Mississippi is less secure than usual.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Healthcare -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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