Possible scenario
Right Bloc Majority
44% Chance
Netanyahu’s bloc converts its campaign poll peak into a narrow Knesset majority with Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit. The recent Supreme Court reinstatement of Arab parties remains politically salient but does not prevent the right from winning enough seats to form a government.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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