Possible scenario
Opposition Blocks Netanyahu
25% Chance
The poll peak proves temporary and the anti-Netanyahu camp prevents the right-religious bloc from reaching 61 seats. Arab party participation after the Supreme Court ruling becomes decisive, either by lifting turnout or by denying the right several marginal mandates.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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