Possible scenario
Terms Dispute Hardens
27% Chance
The hold reflects a substantive dispute over sequencing, sanctions relief, Ukrainian security guarantees, or the scope of an energy ceasefire. Negotiations do not collapse entirely, but public movement stalls and both Moscow and Kyiv harden their positions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.