Possible scenario
Narrow Energy Deal
20% Chance
Even with the Moscow trip paused, the United States salvages a narrower deal focused on energy infrastructure rather than a broad ceasefire. This outcome is plausible because energy-site attacks are easier to verify than front-line troop movements and may appeal to both sides before winter.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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