Possible scenario
Tactical Diplomatic Pause
38% Chance
The Moscow trip is delayed rather than abandoned as Witkoff and Kushner seek clearer buy-in from Kyiv, Washington, and European intermediaries. This is the most likely path because the prior Miami talks and energy-ceasefire proposal suggest negotiations remain active, but the White House is not ready to give Putin a high-profile meeting without tighter terms.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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