Possible scenario
Severe Energy Crisis
20% Chance
Russia's winter campaign causes broader and longer-lasting damage than Ukraine can quickly repair. Large parts of the country face extended blackouts, raising humanitarian risks and forcing Kyiv and European donors into emergency support measures.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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