Possible scenario
Air Defenses Blunt
25% Chance
Ukraine's layered defenses intercept most incoming drones and missiles, limiting damage to repairable grid nodes. The campaign still consumes scarce interceptors, but Kyiv demonstrates better winter resilience than in prior Russian attacks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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