Possible scenario
Grid Damage Contained
42% Chance
Russia conducts a sustained winter strike campaign against substations, thermal plants and transmission nodes, but Ukraine avoids a nationwide grid collapse. Ukrenergo, DTEK repair crews and Western-supplied air defenses keep power rationing regional and rotating.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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