Republican Comeback Win

The Republican nominee benefits from a late national GOP swing, weaker Democratic enthusiasm, or a successful effort to frame Pappas as aligned with unpopular national Democrats. This is less likely than a Pappas win given the current 47.4% to 40.5% lead, but New Hampshire's elastic electorate keeps the path open.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.