Possible scenario
Pappas Sustains Lead
45% Chance
Chris Pappas keeps a mid-single-digit advantage after Labor Day as Democrats consolidate around the open seat created by Jeanne Shaheen's retirement. New Hampshire's moderate electorate and Pappas's existing House profile make this the most likely path if the Republican nominee cannot expand beyond the GOP base.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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