Possible scenario
Deterrence Response
15% Chance
The UAE, United States, and Gulf partners respond with a visible security package intended to deter further strikes. The outcome depends on whether the response remains defensive or crosses into direct action against IRGC-linked launch assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Energy +0.5%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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