Possible scenario
Contained Maritime Harassment
45% Chance
Iran-linked attacks continue at a low-to-moderate tempo around the UAE coast and approaches to Hormuz, but do not close shipping lanes. Markets treat the tug strike as another harassment incident rather than a decisive disruption to Gulf exports.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
- FRO+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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