Possible scenario
Shipping Escalation
30% Chance
The projectile strike becomes part of a broader Iranian or IRGC-linked effort to raise costs for UAE-connected maritime traffic. The most likely escalation is not a full Hormuz closure, but a larger attack on a commercial vessel or a temporary convoy regime that slows movements.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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