Possible scenario
Republican Comeback Upset
18% Chance
Mike Rogers closes the gap and wins the open seat by improving Republican margins among independents, older voters, and working-class voters outside metro Detroit. The outcome would be read nationally as a setback for Harris's battleground strategy and for progressive candidates in statewide races.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.4%
- Finance +0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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