Possible scenario
El-Sayed Lead Holds
45% Chance
Abdul El-Sayed converts the early post-primary polling lead into a durable general-election advantage. Harris's endorsement helps consolidate Democrats in Detroit, Ann Arbor, and suburban Wayne and Oakland counties while reducing lingering Arab American skepticism from 2024.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.4%
- Finance -0.2%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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