Possible scenario
Race Tightens Late
25% Chance
The 7-point lead erodes as Republicans nationalize the race around inflation, immigration, and Harris's approval ratings. El-Sayed remains competitive, but undecided independents and older suburban voters move the contest back toward toss-up status.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.