Possible scenario
Rapid Operational Recovery
26% Chance
Rosneft may contain the damage if the strike affected auxiliary systems rather than the core crude distillation train. A quick restart would reduce the immediate supply shock and reverse some of the diesel-risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
Tickers
- VLO-0.6%
- MPC-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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