Possible scenario
Campaign Hits Refineries
25% Chance
Ukraine could use the Ryazan strike as part of a broader effort to keep Russian refining offline before winter. If follow-on attacks hit additional large assets, markets would move from a single-refinery event to a wider Russian fuel-supply disruption.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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