Possible scenario
Extended Ryazan Outage
34% Chance
The most likely path is that Rosneft cannot quickly restart the damaged primary processing unit, leaving a meaningful portion of Ryazan throughput offline. With prior Ukrainian strikes already stressing Russian refining, even a localized outage can tighten diesel balances and keep export restrictions in place.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- VLO+1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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