Possible scenario
Limited Saudi retaliation
25% Chance
Riyadh responds with targeted airstrikes or missile attacks on Houthi launch infrastructure in Yemen while avoiding a direct attack on Iranian assets. This would raise regional risk premia but would likely remain below the threshold of a Gulf-wide conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.8%
- Energy +1.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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