Possible scenario
Diplomatic de-escalation
19% Chance
Oman, the United Nations, or regional intermediaries push Riyadh and the Houthis back toward a limited security understanding. The attacks stop for now, allowing airlines and oil markets to reduce the immediate risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +1.0%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Energy -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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