Possible scenario
Targeted prosecutions continue
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the Justice Department treats the Louisiana indictments as part of a case-by-case enforcement drive rather than a sweeping national emergency. DHS and DOJ continue using voter-file matches, Social Security citizenship checks, and state referrals, but the near-term legal action remains concentrated in a limited number of jurisdictions.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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