Possible scenario
Crackdown broadens nationally
25% Chance
The Louisiana indictments may become one node in a broader DOJ-DHS push following the reported 1,600 nationwide voter-fraud investigations. Additional states with close 2026 races, including Arizona, Georgia, Texas, and Florida, could receive subpoenas or data requests.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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