Possible scenario
Civil-rights litigation rises
20% Chance
Civil-rights groups are likely to scrutinize the DOJ-DHS enforcement drive, especially if voter-roll reviews are perceived as overbroad or likely to affect naturalized citizens. Litigation could focus on due process, data accuracy, and the timing of federal-state checks before the 2026 election.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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