Possible scenario
Strikes Disrupt Recovery
25% Chance
Ukrainian drone attacks continue to hit refining assets after the Ryazan incident, interrupting the recovery in Russian diesel exports. The disruption is credible because recent export curbs were directly linked to refinery strikes and domestic fuel security concerns.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.