Possible scenario
Sanctions Channel Tightens
20% Chance
Western governments respond to the export rebound by increasing scrutiny of intermediaries, shipping services and Turkey-linked blending channels. This would not necessarily stop Russian diesel flows, but it would raise frictional costs and redirect cargoes to longer routes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.