Possible scenario
Exports Stabilize High
45% Chance
Russia keeps diesel exports close to the reported 3 million tons per month as repaired refineries restart and port logistics normalize. This is the base case because Moscow has already begun lifting curbs and has strong fiscal incentives to monetize refined products despite drone-strike risk.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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