Possible scenario
Missouri Realignment Tests
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Wellman’s win is analyzed alongside Missouri voters rejecting abortion and transition-care restrictions, suggesting a possible issue-based backlash against conservative social policy. The next question is whether this is a durable suburban realignment or a one-cycle protest vote in a still-Republican state.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.