Possible scenario
Limited Retaliation
28% Chance
Riyadh rejects a quick political concession and responds with calibrated military or security measures against Houthi launch infrastructure. The conflict remains bounded, but the probability of additional missile or drone attacks on Saudi energy assets rises.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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