Possible scenario
Ceasefire Breakthrough
18% Chance
The attacks accelerate diplomacy rather than retaliation, with Muscat, Moscow, and Beijing pressing both sides to prevent a wider oil-market shock. A limited ceasefire or pause in cross-border strikes becomes credible if the Houthis receive political recognition of talks over contested Yemen territory.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Consumer Services +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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