Possible scenario
Contained Saudi Disruption
42% Chance
Saudi authorities and Aramco report damage at the Jeddah distribution site and headquarters but no major loss of crude production or exports. Oman, Russia, and China keep ceasefire channels open, while Riyadh strengthens air defense around Aramco facilities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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