Possible scenario
NATO Sabotage Alert
20% Chance
The Bulgarian arrests become part of a wider NATO and EU assessment that Russia-linked sabotage is targeting communications infrastructure across member states. This would be a material geopolitical risk-off development, though still below a crisis tier unless casualties or major outages occur.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
- Telecommunications -1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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