Possible scenario
Russian Link Confirmed
40% Chance
Bulgarian investigators produce financial, travel, or communications evidence tying the two German passport holders to Russian intelligence cut-outs. This is the most likely escalatory path given the prior Starlink incidents in Poland and Bulgaria and EU warnings about sabotage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.6%
- Industrials +0.6%
- Technology -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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