Possible scenario
Localized Prosecution
30% Chance
The arrests lead to a conventional criminal case rather than a publicly proven state-sponsored operation. Authorities still harden Starlink sites, but markets treat the event as a localized security incident with little broader economic impact.
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- SPCX-0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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