Possible scenario
Sanctions Enforcement Tightens
25% Chance
The U.S. keeps the Chevron pathway open but expands enforcement against shadow-fleet tankers, Asian middlemen, and cargoes routed toward China or Cuba. Venezuelan exports fall below current levels because compliance risk rises for shipowners and refiners outside the licensed U.S. channel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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