Possible scenario
Negotiated Oil Relief
20% Chance
Export weakness pushes Caracas back toward a pragmatic arrangement with Washington, focused on debt repayment, migrant returns, and limited political concessions. Additional licenses or clearer compliance terms allow exports to recover without a full sanctions rollback.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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