Possible scenario
Managed Export Plateau
40% Chance
Venezuela's total exports remain close to the current 1.08 million bpd level as higher U.S.-bound flows partly offset weaker shipments to China, Cuba, and sanctioned intermediaries. Washington preserves the carve-outs that protect Chevron-linked cargoes while maintaining pressure on non-U.S. buyers.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
Tickers
- VLO+0.3%
- CVX+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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