Possible scenario
Talks Collapse
20% Chance
Initial diplomacy breaks down because Russia demands security and territorial concessions before stopping attacks. Ukrainian public support for talks does not translate into acceptance of an unfavorable settlement, and both sides return to battlefield leverage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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