Possible scenario
Frozen-War Diplomacy
30% Chance
The Ukrainian public becomes more open to talks, but neither side accepts the other's minimum terms. The war shifts toward a lower-intensity, entrenched conflict with periodic diplomatic rounds and no formal settlement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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