Possible scenario
Negotiations Gain Momentum
40% Chance
The polling shift gives Volodymyr Zelenskyy more political room to authorize direct or indirect talks with Moscow. Washington, Beijing, Ankara, and the UN use the opening to press for a ceasefire sequence rather than an immediate territorial settlement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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