Possible scenario
Russian Hybrid Retaliation
25% Chance
Russia avoids a direct military clash with NATO but uses cyberattacks, GPS jamming, sabotage and deniable operations to punish Estonia’s new doctrine. This fits Moscow’s recent pattern in the Baltics and keeps escalation below the threshold of open war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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