Possible scenario
NATO-Contained Deterrence
45% Chance
Estonia frames deep-strike planning as a conditional deterrent tied to Russian attacks, while NATO keeps command-and-control language deliberately narrow. This is the most likely path because Tallinn wants credible retaliation without forcing an immediate Article 5 crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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