Possible scenario
Deep Strike Executed
20% Chance
A Russian attack or major sabotage event leads Estonia to use, or credibly prepare to use, long-range fire against military targets inside Russia. This is less likely than signaling or hybrid retaliation, but the new doctrine increases the chance that a Baltic incident becomes kinetic.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +4.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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