Possible scenario
Regional Spillover
20% Chance
The conflict widens beyond Saudi-Yemeni battle lines, involving Red Sea shipping lanes or U.S.-linked military assets. This would elevate market concern about trade routes, insurance costs and broader Gulf security.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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