Possible scenario
Contained Saudi Response
40% Chance
Saudi Arabia continues airstrikes on Houthi launch sites while missile-defense systems prevent major damage in Riyadh. Oman and U.S. intermediaries press both sides to avoid strikes on oil infrastructure, keeping the conflict intense but geographically contained.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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